Democrats Get Good News from Most Accurate Pollster About Key Trump Issue

American voters trust Democrats more than Republicans on immigration, which has been a key issue for President Donald Trump throughout his political career, according to a new poll from AtlasIntel.

Heath Brown, professor of public policy at the City University of New York, told Newsweek in part that "it could come down to the difference between campaign rhetoric and actual governance."

A Democratic National Committee (DNC) spokesperson told Newsweek that the poll reflects that "more Americans are realizing they are worse off today than they were six months ago."

Newsweek also reached out to the Republican National Committee for comment.

Why It Matters

Trump, for a decade, has emphasized immigration as his key policy—launching his 2016 presidential campaign with a promise to build a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border, with a focus on mass deportations during his 2024 campaign. Polling suggested immigration was a key issue as to why many of his voters supported him over former Vice President Kamala Harris last November.

However, a flurry of recent surveys suggests the GOP's grip on immigration has slipped amid backlash to his mass deportations. This includes the latest survey from AtlasIntel, which was the most accurate pollster during the 2024 election.

What To Know

The pollster found that Democrats now have an advantage over Republicans on most key political issues, including inflation, healthcare, and foreign policy. It also found that Democrats have chipped away at Republican support on immigration issues.

Only 45 percent of respondents said they trusted Republicans more on immigration, while 49 percent said they trusted Democrats more on the matter.

Meanwhile, a majority of Americans also disapprove of Trump's handling of immigration, with 53 percent giving him negative marks and only 42 percent approving of his approach, according to the poll.

The poll surveyed 1,935 respondents from July 13 to July 18, 2025, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

Brad Jones, professor of political science at the University of California Davis, told Newsweek that other than "MAGA diehards," most Americans "probably bought into the narrative that immigration enforcement would be focused on violent criminal offenders."

"This is not what we are seeing. Instead, we're seeing indiscriminate round-ups, raids, and detentions of individuals ICE and other immigration officials deem to be immigrants. This includes individuals with no criminal backgrounds and even US citizens. The increased focus on this kind of draconian immigration enforcement is revolting to many Americans and so it's not a surprise to see a shift away from Trump and the Republican Party on the issue," Jones said.

He pointed to the "indiscriminate use of faceless, masked ICE agents" and the "deportation of individuals to hostile, non-native countries" as policies that could be driving voters away from Republicans on immigration.

"To the extent this issue can propel Democratic victories in the midterms is dependent upon the Democrats conveying a consistent and consolidated message that what Trump said he would do, not only on this issue but on many others, is flatly not what has happened," he said.

Heath Brown, professor of public policy at the City University of New York, told Newsweek that "it could come down to the difference between campaign rhetoric and actual governance."

"Vague campaign promises to address immigration policy may have been popular among voters in 2024," he said. "However, faced with the reality of extreme immigration policies that curtail non-US students enrollment at US universities, raid places of work and education, and prohibit due process for deportation cases, a majority of Americans are very much opposed."

The poll is a "reflection of the overall dissatisfaction of many Americans with the Trump policy agenda," he said.

Throughout Trump's second term in office, there has been an increase of ICE raids across the country that have sparked protests in places like Los Angeles. Thousands of immigrants, including some who are in the country legally, have been arrested.

Other measures, like the "Alligator Alcatraz" detention center in Florida's Everglades, are unpopular among most Americans. Proponents of the fast-build center, however, say it is necessary to deal with the number of new beds needed.

Supporters of the GOP's immigration policy note that border crossings have decreased under his administration.

What People Are Saying

Kendall Witmer, Rapid Response Director for the DNC: "Donald Trump's six months in office are marked with broken promises and billionaires first. From ripping families apart to threatening a recession to orchestrating the largest cuts to health care and food assistance in American history, more and more Americans are realizing they are worse off today than they were six months ago."

Representative Mike Levin, a California Democrat, on X on Saturday: "Latest Reuters poll shows disapproval for Trump's immigration policy has surged since February. Americans want security AND humanity, not cruelty and chaos. That's why we need bipartisan, common sense reform like our DIGNITY Act, rooted in real solutions."

CNN's Harry Enten, this month: "The American people have turned against President Donald Trump on what was his best issue. One in which he had a positive net approval rating for most of his term, and arguably the issue that got him, of course, the GOP nomination all the way back in 2016. And one of the issues, of course, he used last year to quite a successful degree."

What Happens Next

Trump's mass deportations continue across the United States, though parts of his immigration agenda have been held up in court. Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" increased funding for ICE.

Source

Newsweek

Andrew Stanton, Staff Writer

Link to article.