$1 Trillion Senate Cuts Could Hit State Medicaid by 6%–21%

KFF’s new analysis of the reconciliation bill passed by the Senate yesterday, which CBO says could reduce federal Medicaid spending by $1 trillion over 10 years, estimates that these cuts represent 15% of projected federal spending on Medicaid over that period, and over $200 billion more than would have been cut in the House-passed reconciliation bill. The analysis also illustrates the potential variation in how the cuts could affect states, with Louisiana and Virginia seeing the largest spending cuts (21% in 10 years) and Alabama and Wyoming the smallest (6% in 10 years).

A second KFF analysis on the Senate reconciliation bill’s effects on Medicaid spending in rural areas estimates that over half of cuts to federal Medicaid spending in rural areas ($155 billion in total, which is $35 billion greater than the cuts in the House-passed bill and far greater than what could be offset by the $50 billion rural health fund) could be concentrated in 12 Medicaid expansion states with large rural populations, each of which could see spending in rural areas decline by at least $5 billion over 10 years. Kentucky would experience the largest rural Medicaid spending cut ($12 billion over 10 years).

More on the budget reconciliation bills’ health care cuts from Larry Levitt: We’ve Never Seen Health Care Cuts This Big (New York Times Opinion)

KFF is a nonprofit health policy research, polling, and news organization.